mepeace.org

THE TWO-STATE DELUSION
By Alan Sabrosky
05/09/09
www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2009/May......


The world is once again being treated to yet another round in the Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" charade. The "usual suspects" are posturing, pronouncements are being made, speeches are being given, and hints and rumors about a supposed "toughening" in the US Government's approach to Israel are filtering out from the press. We are supposed to think that something different is about to happen, and that, as the old American folk song had it, "The times, they are a-changing."


Arranging the Stage


It is all nonsense. The whole exercise strikes me as what the old Soviet Army used to call a maskirovka, sort of a complex strategic masquerade on steroids, with rehearsed actors playing their scripted roles before a fully aware and involved audience, and that includes the head of the American NSC and his "leaked" memos. There may be some blunter words said to Netanyahu than he (or other Israeli prime ministers) have heard in a while, but it isn't unprecedented. Former President Reagan was VERY pro-Israeli, but he got so incensed at Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon that he reportedly yelled at then-Israeli Prime Minister Begin and deployed Marines with naval support to block them around Beirut. And regardless of how the intervention ended, there were occasions when US Marines and Israeli troops came right up to the edge of a full-scale fire-fight, and I was assured at the time by several Marine officers who were there that they were fully prepared to slug it out with the IDF if that was required, and the 6th Fleet had standing orders to go to the mat in their support if that happened - a far cry from 1967, when it had stood back in the face of the deliberate Israeli air and naval attack on the USS Liberty that killed or wounded more than 200 American sailors and Marines.

Today that would never happen, of course, or the US Navy & Marine Corps would have punched a hole through the Israeli blockade on Gaza and ended their assault on it a few months ago. They didn't, and President Obama wouldn't have sent them in, either -- most of the rest of the world has been outraged by the brutal Israeli action that killed over 1400 Palestinians and wounded thousands more, the majority of them women and children, but all Obama does is talk about America's undying commitment to the security of "our staunch ally Israel," while the US Congress declaims its support of "poor, brave little Israel" and continues to vote billions of dollars in assistance to it.

What is going to happen is that stories will leak about "full & frank" discussions between Obama & Netanyahu, and then after hemming and hawing for a while, Netanyahu will grudgingly agree to negotiations leading towards a two-state solution, he will be praised as a "man of peace" (just like Ariel Sharon, right?), and that pot will just keep boiling and boiling until both Obama and Netanyahu go away, or the war with Iran starts and everyone else forgets about the Palestinians, at which point more Jewish settlements go up in the West Bank, more Palestinian homes are demolished in East Jerusalem, and the Israelis invade Gaza again. Q.E.D.

What two states?

Besides, the two-state solution is a dead-in-the-water derelict, and given the Israeli attitude, probably always was. For it to be viable, three things would absolutely have to happen. First, all Israeli settlements would have to be withdrawn from the West Bank and Palestinian refugees allowed to return without Israeli interference. That isn't going to happen -- aside from party positions and other things, can you see Netanyahu telling his favored foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman to pack his suitcase and abandon his home in a West Bank settlement? He won't, the settlements will stay, and that means the larger piece of this so-called "second state" would have about a half-million armed Jewish settlers in its midst, plus regular Israeli army patrols, plus the fence, plus border guards and check points...and so on.

Second, a viable Palestinian state would have to be sufficiently well armed to make the Israelis think ten times before doing a Gaza strike in either part, and the Israelis flat out won't go there -- the most they'll accept is a lightly-armed Palestinian police force, because (as they showed in Gaza) policemen can be killed very easily by tactical aircraft, heavy artillery and main battle tanks. This has nothing to do with fear of attack from Palestinians -- Israel's own massive nuclear arsenal and powerful air force utterly negate that option -- but with minimizing their own casualties the next time they decide to terrorize the Palestinians.

And last, a viable Palestinian state would need armed guarantees from other nations -- a permanent international naval force off Gaza to keep its coast open, heavily armed ground forces in both parts to ensure that an Israeli invasion would hit them first and suffer doing so, and at least one carrier battle group off the coast for air and missile and electronics support. That would close off Israel's military option against Palestine, so of course they won't do this, either. So nothing the Palestinians need to be viable and safe will happen, which means there is no two-state solution, and since the US has already announced it won't employ sanctions or penalties against Israel no matter what (which is why the AIPAC audience applauded Biden....), the whole thing is just propaganda. Harsh language without tangible penalties is meaningless, and ALL of the key players on all sides know this. And that's the end of it.

Playing the Players

Looking beyond the two-state political zombie requires one to look at the key players. Aside from their impoverishment, geographical separation and vulnerability, about the only cards the Palestinians hold are a willingness to persevere and a comparable willingness to die. The misbegotten Palestinian Authority (PA) is so useless, and its top leaders -- Arafat as well as Abbas -- have been so bad, that I cannot decide if it and they are creations of Mossad, or simply tolerated to ensure that nothing much better will come along. Hamas is better for Palestinians, of course, which is why it won the election a few years ago, and it is for that reason more than any other that the Jewish lobbies in the US and elsewhere have made its presence in negotiations all but unthinkable. It isn't because of Hamas involvement in what Israelis call "terrorism" and the Palestinians call "resistance" -- most newly-independent countries after WWII, including Israel itself, have been led by parties whose roots were just like Hamas -- but because Hamas has more legitimacy and effectiveness than the Palestinian Authority, and is less of a toady to the Israelis, so of course Israel opposes it. It wants a weak, hapless and inept Palestinian leadership, and in Abbas and the PA today it assuredly has what it wants.

Israel itself is a fascinating case study in the principle that people often acquire the worst habits of their oppressors, for the dominant Israeli attitude -- openly expressed in their English-language press and blogs, and on news websites outside of the US where criticism of Israel is still permissible -- views Arabs generally and Palestinians in particular much the way their last oppressors viewed Jews. Certainly, state-sponsored military Schrecklichkeit ("frightfulness" or "terror") by these "kosher Nazis" is at the core of their policy towards Palestine, which apparently assumes that if they kill enough Palestinian children and make life sufficiently miserable for the rest, the Palestinians will finally succumb and serve their masters -- "ethnic cleansing" these days just being so messy diplomatically. And even when an Israeli government comes to power whose key leaders -- Netanyahu and Lieberman -- make the neo-Nazi NPD in Germany seem almost moderate, and apartheid-era South Africa look positively liberal, no government in Europe or the United States dares say so and act accordingly. What we get instead is yet another Holocaust memorial, intended less to try to excuse what Jews do to Palestinians today, than to humiliate Europeans and Americans by reminding them of what they did (or did not do) during the Holocaust, as a way of encouraging them to keep out of Israel's affairs today. And so far it works for them.

As for the United States, the Jewish lobbies together constitute another fascinating case study in history's only successful takeover of a major power's central government from within by a domestic Fifth Column, serving the interests of a foreign country. Money, manipulation of political appointments, and management of news and views are the name of the dominance game, and it is a game Jerusalem has played expertly. If anyone ever doubted the extent to which the majority of the US Government has been well and truly bought or compromised, Congressional votes in support of Israel during and after the most recent assault on Gaza, US vetoes of even half-hearted UN attempts to bring Israel to heel and hold it to account, and Bush's endorsement of Israel's "right to defend itself" speak volumes. Obama's silence on the issue speaks even louder -- contrast that with what he (and the US Congress as well) would likely have said and done if during apartheid South African jets, tanks and artillery had attacked the black township of Soweto the way the Israelis attacked Gaza, killing and wounding thousands of black women and children and turning Soweto into a burning ruin. Somehow, I do not believe silence, indifference or support of Pretoria would have been forthcoming from Washington.

There is only one possible fly in this ointment, from the Israeli perspective, and it is the only one that anyone wishing to unravel this Gordian knot can exploit: American public opinion. At present, a large majority of Americans support Israel, having been fed a steady diet for decades of Israeli "victimization" in the face of Arab "barbarism." But that support is, as the saying goes in America, "a mile wide and an inch deep," and AIPAC and company know this, which is why they work so hard to filter what most Americans see, hear and read about the Middle East. But it is a filter that is starting to weaken -- more and more Americans surf the internet and encounter very different views, a difference that is reflected in growing criticism of Israel and of US support for it, something that would have been almost impossible even a decade ago. Disrupt this pro-Israel filter, make historical events like the Israeli assault on the USS Liberty and the IDF's murder of a young American woman named Rachel Corrie household words in the US, bring images of ravaged Gaza into American homes, and watch the world start to change -- because it can. And the technology is there to do this.


About the author: Alan Sabrosky (Ph.D, University of Michigan) is a ten-year US Marine Corps veteran and a graduate of the US Army War College. He can be contacted at docbrosk@comcast.net

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Mazin.

WOW. Israelis in Sderot and elsewhere will sit up and take notice just because Alan Sabrowsky (whoever he is) says a bunch of nonsense that pleases the Arab extremists and increases the chances of terror in Israel and in the USA. It makes terrorists believe that they can actually win and thus bring peace. You know the peace they are talking about.
Mazin believes that his ideas of right of return are the only way to have peace.

as he say, I do not care if it one state or two state, I care that the Palestinians will get back all the property they claim as their as if no Zionist state established.
Can you address the substance of what Prof Sabrosky says instead of just hurling insults at him (in the case of Igor) or in the case of Neri putting a rather inaccurate statement about what I believe is a route to peace (irrelevant to the text of this article).

PS: About the author: Alan Sabrosky (Ph.D, University of Michigan) is a ten-year US Marine Corps veteran and a graduate of the US Army War College. He can be contacted at docbrosk@comcast.net
Mazin

OK. So he has a PHD.So what. In what field? What is his claim to fame currently. Is he employed and where? When did he get his PHD? What are his credentials in making such nonsensical statements?

You know Mazin, I can get any Tom Dick and Harry to make a statement pro and con. Factual or Wild. It is strictly an individual opinion and has no validity in any conversation and should not even be posted never mind debated. Do you want to have a duel of Phd's?

Which one is Alan Sabrowsky, Phd- Tom Dick or Harry?
Mazin,

It is a waste of time, but since you show difficulty to see the other side here an example:


What two states?

Besides, the two-state solution is a dead-in-the-water derelict, and given the Israeli attitude, probably always was.


-> His assumption is that Israel never wanted peace. so all what base on that is peace cannot be achieved while Israel entity exists.


For it to be viable, three things would absolutely have to happen. First, all Israeli settlements would have to be withdrawn from the West Bank and Palestinian refugees allowed to return without Israeli interference. That isn't going to happen -- aside from party positions and other things, can you see Netanyahu telling his favored foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman to pack his suitcase and abandon his home in a West Bank settlement? He won't, the settlements will stay, and that means the larger piece of this so-called "second state" would have about a half-million armed Jewish settlers in its midst, plus regular Israeli army patrols, plus the fence, plus border guards and check points...and so on.

-> not all Israeli settlements would have to be withdrawn. the negotiation done so far seem to bring more complex solution as land swap etc. unlike Dr. Sabrosky simplistic solution that has no moderation (all or nothing) the practical land solution is complex.

-> So far is seem that Bibi will have to go with the US statements, and he will probably try to buy Avigdor Lieberman into it for his historic fame. but probably we will see Avigdor Lieberman leave and Zippi Livney Joint to form the change. Israel situation now is a prime opportunity for historic change, the fear from Iran and the pride of showing Hamas who is the stronger elements create flexibility for historic change in Israel. a change that will express Israel wish for peace.

-> all his description of a two state solutions is a copy of the existed reality - this describe current reality " larger piece of this so-called "second state" would have about a half-million armed Jewish settlers in its midst, plus regular Israeli army patrols, plus the fence, plus border guards and check points...and so on." and not agreeable future situation by the palestinians.


Second, a viable Palestinian state would have to be sufficiently well armed to make the Israelis think ten times before doing a Gaza strike in either part, and the Israelis flat out won't go there -- the most they'll accept is a lightly-armed Palestinian police force, because (as they showed in Gaza) policemen can be killed very easily by tactical aircraft, heavy artillery and main battle tanks. This has nothing to do with fear of attack from Palestinians -- Israel's own massive nuclear arsenal and powerful air force utterly negate that option -- but with minimizing their own casualties the next time they decide to terrorize the Palestinians.

-> his vision of peace with Israel existence is the current image, I guess that at the beginning Israel will demand that the Palestinians will not develop a force that can be threat, it is logical for Israel and can be acceptable by palestinians if there is guarantee that Israel will not attack and there will be security cooperation between the two states.

-> using nuclear arsenal against the palestinians is the dumbest thing not only for its moral reason, it can risk Israelis (The expert probably do not know about the side effects of nuclear bombs).

-> Israel, at peace time will not decide to terrorize the Palestinians. If you assume Israel as Evil kingdom you may think that Israelis wish to terrorize the Palestinians but if we achieved peace, it going to be the prime asset of israel and not someting any one that is not fanatic wish to break by terrorize the Palestinians.



And last, a viable Palestinian state would need armed guarantees from other nations -- a permanent international naval force off Gaza to keep its coast open, heavily armed ground forces in both parts to ensure that an Israeli invasion would hit them first and suffer doing so, and at least one carrier battle group off the coast for air and missile and electronics support. That would close off Israel's military option against Palestine, so of course they won't do this, either. So nothing the Palestinians need to be viable and safe will happen, which means there is no two-state solution, and since the US has already announced it won't employ sanctions or penalties against Israel no matter what (which is why the AIPAC audience applauded Biden....), the whole thing is just propaganda. Harsh language without tangible penalties is meaningless, and ALL of the key players on all sides know this. And that's the end of it.

-> This is description of was situation and not of peace. the guy assume Israel wish to terrorize the Palestinians. so he claim they need protection.


=================================

I had enough with this childish stupid rational, do you later claim that you agree with his views and that you think that two state solution is possible?
Neri
It is actually manifestly true that no Israeli government would agree to the dismantlement of ENOUGH settlements in eth West Bank to make for a viable, SOVEREIGN Palestinian state. This is because where settlements with the largest populatisn are is exactly where they are to control natural resources, divide the West Bank into cantons, and isolate Jerusalem from the other areas of the West Bank. No Palestinian economically viable state would be workable without the water equifers or without Jerusalem. It is as simpel as that. So teh settlements that Palestinains are willing to have stay as part of land swap are not the ones Israel is thinking to have stay as part of a land swap. Also Palestinains state taht land swap is welcome as long as it is the same QUALITY and quantity. Israel thinks it can get away with keeping Maale Adumim and Ariel etc for giving Palestinains a piece of desert near Gaza. Further Israeli leadesr have NEVER ever accepted to have a sovereign Palestinian state west of the river Jordan. Period. Not labor, not Kadima, and not even Meretz.

As for demilitarized: would Israel be wiling to demilitarize after peace? If the answer is no then why would you assume Palestinians don't have anything to fear from a militarized Israel while Israel has something to fear from a militarized Palestine. Unless you are still of the old mindset that teh victims are the agressors and their aggression is genetic.

You see this Dr. Sabrosky does make some sense. Your immediate reactions to three of his points show you are still not seeing the facts on the ground as they are.

In my humble opinion, one who is really for two states would be for full withdrawal to 1967 borders (itself only 22% of Palestine that you are asking Palestinians to be satisfied with) and having full equality between the two states in rights and obligations. The only other option is that one is just using the rhetoric of two states to obfuscate real intentions of consolidating apartheid. OR like me one is for citizenship under a one state solution as a more durable peace.
Mazin,

while you see Israel as "Zionist entity" and see "Zionist" as Racist ,,, you can easily conclude no Israeli government would agree to the dismantlement of ENOUGH settlements in eth West Bank to make for a viable, SOVEREIGN Palestinian state.

I will tell you it is possible from my internal knowledge of Israel and my education in social dynamics and you will continue fail to see that Modern National Palestinian State is not only important to Palestinian, it is important for Israel.

It is no surprise to do not accept my comment, but I hope that one day you will find a way to see "integral reality" and not just one sided idealistic wishes.
I do not use the term "Zionist Entity" but even those who do, what does that mean. Israel is an entity and it is based on Zionism (ingathering of Jews, creation of Jewish state in Palestine). How is that related to the support of two states. We were talking about you and other Zionists: If they really want a Jewish state based on International legitimacy there is UNGA resolution 181 (55% for a Jewish state, 43% for a Palestinian Arab state, and 2% Jerusalem/International) or tehre is the Arab Peace Initiative which is far more generous (22% Palesine, 78% Jewish state). You only want to talk about "two-states" but not support the pressure needed and the removal of colonial settlements needed to support teh two states you claim you advocate. You change it back to me because you have no answer to that.
As a former resident in a marine corps community, I can tell you that having been in the USMC hardly qualifies one as an authority on anything in particular by itself. You will have to bring us someone with a better credential than that.

Are we supposed to be convinced of something because this guy was a jarhead?

As for the United States, the Jewish lobbies together constitute another fascinating case study in history's only successful takeover of a major power's central government from within by a domestic Fifth Column, serving the interests of a foreign country. Money, manipulation of political appointments, and management of news and views are the name of the dominance game, and it is a game Jerusalem has played expertly. If anyone ever doubted the extent to which the majority of the US Government has been well and truly bought or compromised,

I think this idiot has read the Protocols of the Elders of Zion or the Turner Diaries too many times.It reminds me a lot of your posts, actually.

Wow! And it was printed in the Khaleej TImes of all papers. That's impressive since Dubai was one of only three countries in the entire world that recognized the Islamo-fascist and criminal Taliban regime. That says a lot.

Please, the next time you want to share some trashy propaganda that edges on the border of "classical' neo-Nazi anti-Semitic propaganda, cut and past something that isn't so utterly transparent in its insulting use of tired stereotypes and lies.
Neri:

As an Israeli do you believe that this is possible in today's climate? Do you think that the Israeli public will allow this right of return to a Jewish state in whatever form it takes?

Finally do you believe that Jews will just get up and leave or will they harden and become more rightist as a result? Can peace be achieved with a multi ethnic Israel and a Judenrein Palestine?

I personally doubt it. If this is not the way than why do we continue to discuss such unreasonable ideas.
If you read my comment you will see I think this is a rubbish and its only put for BLAME GAME

Sadly the right of return is not an option that can work with Israel interest and current social situation. it is a fake dream of people who think that if you have ideology you can force it on others.

any how, Israel must change, we must help the settlers to imigrate back into 67 borders under agreement with the palestinians, and if they will not do that willingly we need to use violence to make that happened.

Israel is strong now so it need to be more firm with citizens who think they have right to force their ideology on others.
Obviously not answering the questions is answering the questions ;-)

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